Issued by: Environment Agency and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Water bosses updated National Drought Group on winter plans, as research shows above-average rainfall needed to end drought by April 2027.

The government has today urged water companies not to lose momentum and carry on water efficiency measures until the drought is over.

Public water supply was the focus of the latest National Drought Group meeting with water company chief executives called to give updates on their leakage reduction plus autumn and winter preparedness.

There were no changes in status, with almost three-quarters of England remaining in drought after an exceptionally dry spring and summer, alongside a succession of heatwaves.

Drought is only over when rivers, groundwaters and reservoirs are back to normal levels – and the latter two continue to recede, as expected.

New research has shown we need 120% of typical rainfall over the next seven months for all areas to be considered out of drought.

The National Drought Group, which includes the government, Met Office, regulators, water companies, farmers, Canal & River Trust, anglers, and conservation experts, is now meeting weekly to monitor the situation and coordinate action as part of the heightened incident response.

The government also continues to strengthen the country’s capacity to respond to extreme weather including nine new reservoirs by 2050.

After attending Tuesday’s meeting, Water Minister Emma Hardy said:

"The recent rainfall is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used over the last six months, and I will be carefully monitoring the actions of water companies which will be vital as we go through the autumn.

"They need to maintain momentum. We expect to see leaks fixed quickly, drought plans followed without delay and continued work to reduce demand to help avoid any further restrictions.

"Long-term resilience is a priority for this government, and we are working with water companies and regulators on nine major reservoirs to secure future supplies."

Actions by the Government include:

• A £65million package to help farmers impacted by drought, including funding up to £15million to build on-farm reservoirs, helping farmers to better store more water when it rains.

• £100million to strengthen the country’s capacity to respond to extreme weather and wildfires.

• Continued water company work on resilience, including nine new reservoirs by 2050 as well as desalination plants and multiple water transfers to help secure future supplies.

• Changes in the Planning and Infrastructure Act to enable to non-water sector companies to build reservoirs that are automatically considered as nationally significant infrastructure projects, which will speed up the approvals for new reservoirs.

• Continued work on mandatory water efficiency labelling and will respond soon to a consultation on improving water efficiency in new homes.

• Continued work on nature-based solutions, such as restoring peatlands, creating more wetlands and planting more trees, to prevent flooding and hold more water in drought.

• Continued cross-government work on resilience to extreme weather, such as droughts, flooding and wildfires.

At the session, the Environment Agency presented data looking at potential rainfall scenarios over the coming seven months.

The outlook for wetter weather in autumn is set to bring some relief to most drought-hit areas; however even in the most likely weather scenario Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia are expected to still be in drought by the start of April 2027.

There is roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of the country will still be in drought next spring – and currently around a 1% chance of a severe drought in the coming months. The risks will depend on future rainfall, but this country has not seen a severe drought since 1976.

For context, between September 2025 and March 2026, England received 130% of its typical rainfall leading to recovery from last year’s drought.

That rain provided an initial buffer for England’s water resources through a dry spring, which saw just over half (56%) of typical rainfall across England.

But the driest July and joint-hottest August on record (including five summer heatwaves) resulted in an enormous strain on supplies, with demand for water increasing by as much as 30% on the hottest days.

The summer saw 64% of expected summer rainfall, resulting in a very difficult harvest for farmers and impacts on fish stocks, bird populations, and wider ecosystems.

The Met Office is forecasting the second half of September will see a return to drier conditions, particularly in the south where the rain is needed the most.

Overall, El Niño is set to be put the UK at greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn. Using data submitted by each water company, the Environment Agency has modelled various rainfall scenarios and when regions might be declared out of drought.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEPT TO MARCH: (Based on the Met Office three-month outlook and seasonal indications)

• There remains a geographical divide with the north moving to recovery, followed by the midlands and then finally parts of the south.

• Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire could move to recovery in October and be declared back to normal in November.

• By December, most areas could see a fragile recovery, although four areas (Devon & Cornwall, East Anglia, Thames Valley and the West Midlands) would stay in drought.

• By February, most places are back to normal. The East and West Midlands plus Thames Valley are in recovery with Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia remaining in drought.

• By the start of spring 2027, Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia would still be in drought – entering the traditionally dry months already with water deficits.

AVERAGE RAINFALL SEPT TO MARCH: (100% of average rainfall)

• There would be a patchy recovery beginning next month, with Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire declared normal in November.

• Most areas would stay in drought for the rest of this year but January could see everywhere except East Anglia in either recovery or back to normal.

• By the start of April, East Anglia may stay in drought and Devon & Cornwall will be fragile recovery.

DRY SEPT TO MARCH: (80% of average rainfall) (Around a one-in-four likelihood of occurrence)

• A fragile recovery could begin in November, with all four northern areas (Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire, the North East and Yorkshire) moving from prolonged dry weather to recovery. By January, they would be back to normal status. *Drought conditions would remain across the midlands and the south for the rest of 2026. The East Midlands could move to recovery in January and be joined by London, Hertfordshire, and Kent the following month.

• East Anglia, Lincolnshire & Northamptonshire, Thames Valley, Devon & Cornwall, Wessex (covering Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, and south Gloucestershire) Solent & the South Downs and the West Midlands would still be in drought by the start of April 2027.

Environment Agency Chief Executive Philip Duffy, who chaired the meeting, said:

"The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months.

"Several reservoirs are concerningly low, and we need water companies to take every action possible to secure water supplies going into next year, including stepping up on leakage reduction and following their drought plans.

"Water supplies are limited and we continue to balance the needs of agriculture, public water supply and our environment.

"A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer. We still need everyone’s else to use a little less water to speed up the drought recovery."

Autumn rainfall is set to help top up water levels but could lead to flooding in some areas. Flood water is very difficult to store for public water supply because it arrives so rapidly and is high in sediment and nitrates that run off from the land.

The developing El Niño is one of several factors that could influence the UK’s weather, with previous El Niño winters associated with a greater chance of wet and windy conditions in late autumn and early winter, and colder, calmer conditions later in the season.

Head of Environment and Energy at the Met Office, Sarah Davies, said:

“The latest Met Office seasonal September to November outlook points towards the increased likelihood of a warmer and wetter than average autumn, with the signal for unsettled, wet and windy weather becoming stronger later in the season.

“This means there is a greater chance of periods of heavy rain and strong winds during October and November than we would typically expect at this time of year.

“The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific is one factor contributing to this outlook, having historically been associated with wetter and stormier conditions across the UK during late autumn and early winter.

“Looking further ahead, evidence from previous El Niño events suggests there may be an increased likelihood of colder, drier and quieter conditions developing later in the winter.

“However, El Niño is only one of several drivers that influence the UK’s weather, and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will see.”

Tags

More Like This

Drought likely to continue into 2026 due to record dry weather

Report warns of widespread drought in 2026 without a wet winter

Drought expected to continue through autumn despite recent rain

National Drought Group meets after dry spring and recent heatwave

More areas of country move into drought with dry weather set to continue

National Drought Group steps up response after third heatwave

Drought declared in north-west of England

Yorkshire moves into drought recovery following recent rain