A colossal new poll and MRP analysis suggests that Labour’s lead is built on people who have already decided to vote tactically and that tactical voting will be essential to prevent a hard-right Conservative opposition led by Suella Braverman or Nigel Farage.

Best for Britain’s massive poll of more than 22,000 people and MRP analysis undertaken by Survation shows one in five (22.7%) of those who say they intend to vote for Labour say they are doing so tactically to prevent another party winning in their area. Meanwhile, a third of people (33.9%) who are voting Lib Dem, say theirs is a tactical vote.

The poll shows that Labour are currently leading in 456 seats while the Tories have crumbled to a dismal 72, barely enough candidates to fill a double-decker bus. The Lib Dems meanwhile regain their position of third largest party - ahead in 56 seats.

In the first MRP poll since Nigel Farage announced he would stand for election and resume the position of party leader, Reform UK Party Ltd are in pole position in seven seats and are second place within 10pts of the leading candidate in six more.

The high number of marginal constituencies means polls in Scotland are extremely volatile. This latest poll shows the SNP ahead in 37 seats but as recently as 4th June they were ahead in only 24. Currently, Labour are only 2.5pts behind the SNP in 3 seats, within 5pts in another 4 and 10pts in a further 12 meaning the picture in Scotland could change significantly in the final three weeks of the campaign. In Scotland Labour are ahead in 14 constituencies but could win 21 if these marginal battles go their way.

In terms of the inferred national vote share, Labour currently leads (39.6%) followed by the Conservatives (23.5%), Reform UK Party Ltd (12.3%), the Liberal Democrats (11.4%) and then the Green Party (6.4%).

The constituency-level data further suggests that tactical voting will not only be pivotal in determining who takes the keys to Number 10 but also who ends up in control of the Conservative Party in opposition should they lose the election. The analysis suggests that hard-right, Brexit-backing populist Conservatives including Suella Braverman, Priti Patel and Liz Truss are all in danger if Labour, Lib Dem and Green Voters vote tactically. Similarly, if Labour and Green voters continue to lend support to the Liberal Democrats in Godalming and Ash, Jeremy Hunt will lose his seat.

In all seven seats where Reform are leading the polls, the combined Labour, Lib Dem and Green vote would be more than enough to lock Farage and his acolytes out of Westminster. In the constituency of Clacton, Nigel Farage holds only a wafer thin lead over both the Conservative and Labour candidates.

Campaigners are asking Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters in these constituencies to vote tactically to keep the Conservatives out of power for a decade and prevent Reform UK getting a foothold in parliament. On Monday, GetVoting.org will publish tactical voting recommendations based on the most up to date polling and timed to reach voters as the first postal votes drop.

Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain and founder of GetVoting.org said,

“Never before has tactical voting had more of an impact on a general election in theUK and it will be pivotal in keeping the likes of Farage or Braverman lurching the Conservatives even further to the right in opposition. We will be leading the charge, giving voters the up to date information they need locally to change the government nationally.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, Founder and Chief Executive of Survation said,

“Our polling and MRP analysis suggests that 138 seats can be won or lost with a 2.5% swing to the second placed party. In such a rapidly changing electoral landscape, ensuring voters have the most up to date information they need to correctly identify the challengers in their constituency will be more important than ever.”

ENDS

Notes for Editors

Contact:

Niall McGourty

Director of Communications, Best for Britain

07540 100933/ niall@bestforbritain.org

RSVP to Best for Britain’s Press Conference: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeQ9uyyt0X6v8OThuzkzAyF6qLKzqfv9MZLgZKeVmRnbZSafw/viewform

This poll of 22,149 people undertaken by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain was carried out between 31st May - 13th June 2024: https://www.bestforbritain.org/june_2024_mrp

Best for Britain’s MRP published on 4th June is available here: https://www.bestforbritain.org/_polls_diverge_on_scale_of_tory_defeat

Who are Best for Britain?

We are the researchers, data scientists, strategists, and activists, fixing the problems Britain faces after Brexit.

We conduct polling to help politicians lead debate, not follow it.

We design policy for whoever is in government, today or tomorrow.

And we give voters the tools to speak to, and persuade, those in power.

We believe that when we change minds we change politics for the better.

And that all of this is Best for Britain.

Our Chair is the Chairman of Virgin Group, Peter Norris

Our CEO is Naomi Smith

Best for Britain is the Secretariat for the UK Trade and Business Commission and organisers of Trade Unlocked.

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